10, Janpath, wore a disconsolate, deserted look in February 2004 when I drove past its long stretch of barricaded compound. Barring the Black Cat commando-led high-security and birds sitting in a disciplined pattern on its imposing walls, there was a perceptible silence around it, with none of the pre-election fervour you would expect. It housed a simple woman, a late prime minister's widow, on whom the great Congress party founded in 1885 had now bestowed their rapidly dwindling hopes. In a few months, India's general elections beckoned.
Just a day before, a popular TV channel and a regular national daily's joint opinion polls had indicated that the Congress would achieve a dubious distinction; a new historic nadir comprising a paltry two-digit 99 seats in Indian Parliament. Rumours abounded in high circles that there would be serious internal party revolt if and when the Congress catapulted into oblivion. "India was shining", was uttered in a collective resonance by pin-striped business czars and eager-beaver media anchors, smiling ear to ear. The ruling BJP (Bhartiya Janata Party) led coalition was preparing for a rampaging onslaught, to bury their "pseudo-secular" rivals into the pit of total annihilation. Their famous Doctor Spin, the late Pramod Mahajan feigned disappointment on the projection that his saffron party would return to power with friends alike with a "mere 330 seats". India and the BJP were celebrating its glossy shine, but the Congress indeed looked down a deep dark hole.
It was in these circumstances that one witnessed the quiet arrival of a young man on the treacherous terrain of Indian politics. Rahul Gandhi was making his political debut, joining India's undisputed first family in fulfilling its pre-destined course maybe, yet in an unknown, uncharted, and unfamiliar territory and future for the first time. Unlike his father, Rajiv Gandhi who had reluctantly transported himself from the plane's cockpit into the party corridors, Rahul was taking a bold step of his own volition. It was a big moment. And a poignant one. He knew the past legacy; he was also aware that he was not getting a red carpet cake-walk. The Congress had been in the Opposition benches, and the prognostications about election results were bleak. But in a few weeks, India would see the most stunning reversal of fortunes ever and a dramatic upset, that had professional psephologists flushed with deep embarrassment providing flaky explanations for failed statistical models. The Congress was back. The BJP was rejected outright. Rahul's political journey had begun.
Indian democracy, despite a bizarre flirtation in 1977 with odd assortments in the Janata experiment (the CPM and Jana Sangh were on the same side), has always been dominated by magnetic personalities from one single family: the Gandhis. A Morarji Desai, Charan Singh, Jagjivan Ram etc were national leaders but with limited pockets of influence. Even V P Singh and Atal Bihari Vajpayee were not pan-Indian leaders in terms of their mass appeal, they were more products of the electorate's brief experimentation with somebody new, following disillusionment with the Congress. India has always lionized an inspirational leader they can trust.
In an election campaign recently, Rahul Gandhi said, "My father died long before 1991 for us." Eighteen years ago, during the last days of the summer elections on the night of May 21, Rajiv Gandhi was brutally assassinated by an LTTE suicide bomber in Sriperumbudur. Rahul had just about crossed his teen years, and was studying in the USA. A disturbing shrill call at an unusual hour by his mother's assistant Madhavan was enough to tell him that something had gone terribly wrong.
After Rajiv's tragic, untimely demise, the clueless Congress had no Plan B. The rudderless uninspiring Congress leadership that followed was the principal reason behind the subsequent rise of coalition politics, much more than caste arithmetic and religious polarisation, as is otherwise assumed. Because no single towering national leader truly dominated the Indian political landscape thereafter, who could cut across inherent barriers, a confused electorate began to increasingly bite the comfort zone of personal parochial interests in close proximity, often misunderstood to be "local factors" by over-zealous commentators. Suddenly new political entities surfaced, with no clear social or economic agenda, and began to slice away into niche communities simply for vote bank consolidation. It altered India's political dynamics dramatically.
Rahul is aware that his father was hugely handicapped when taking on the big job, as he had had little experience in either handling internal affairs or a cabinet function. The golden age of India politics which commenced after that incredible landslide of 1984, alas had an ephemeral stint as relative inexperience was to affect Rajiv Gandhi's ultimate judgement in crucial moments, the Zail Singh fracas, Bofors probe, Shah Bano case, V P Singh's elevation, the shilanayas ceremony , propping up Chandrashekhar as PM etc. It was simply Rajiv's limited pre-exposure to the complex web of Indian politics which did him in, whereby he lost a massive public mandate in a disastrous fall in 1989, when the Congress was reduced from 400-plus seats in Parliament to a mere 197. Rahul is resolved not to repeat the same mistakes again.
When he went traversing the country over the last few years, the BJP made sarcastic digs at the man, saying Rahul was on a "discovery of India" tour, alluding that he was like a foreigner groping around to unravel his own native turf. The truth, in fact, is elsewhere. They have failed to discover the man. Society columnists whose political education begin at the Taj hotel and whose graduation ceremony conclude at The Trident , continue to be cynical about his initiatives, but then what can one expect from those who believe the cow-belt to be the latest fashion accessory?
Rahul spoke candidly. "I have an advantage of my celebrated surname. It has guaranteed me in an easy entry into the highest echelons of political power. I have greater access and an easy induction. But I know that there are many amongst you who do not have the same advantage. I want to give you that opportunity, no more political patronage and parochial favoritism. It will be fair and equal". It was refreshingly honest; when have you heard politicians speak that language? Ever? For a man accused of being a beneficiary of dynastic politics, Gandhi is now challenging the same inequities prevalent in our political framework.
Thus, what has gone quite remarkably unnoticed is the extraordinary political reform that Rahul Gandhi has introduced , almost subtly and without the fanfare that you would normally expect; the democratisation of the Youth Congress, which is almost a precursor to the transformation of the big desi GOP itself in the future. It is certainly a landmark. Gandhi has personally ensured an open- house selection policy, rigorous interviews are held, past political and family contacts have been made irrelevant, with a transparent jury doing the final selection. The entire screening process is audited by former election commissioners. The result has been an overwhelming response from young hopefuls who are keen to join Rahul's burgeoning band-wagon. It has been a quiet, under-stated ground revolution at the grass-root level, which when it assumes national proportions, could transform Indian politics forever.
Rahul is looking for young people with their feet on the ground and their head on their shoulders that can think. One typically finds Indians perpetually blaming the "political system", we hear endless lamentations about how it is intrinsically corrupt, extremely closely-held, seats auctioned to the highest bidder, highly caucus-like which leaves a genuine committed public worker no scope for making a political career. Gandhi is in a great hurry to address this genuine problem, just like he aggressively championed the NREGS. And the RTI Act which is perhaps the most revolutionary breakthrough legislation in post-Independence India. Not to mention his from-the-heart talk during the nuclear deal which has given India serious international recognition.
The democratisation process of the youth wing of the party is path-defining, unprecedented and the ultimate in political detoxification. Just like his father understood fairly early the strange ways of power-brokers in the party and the powerful social apparatus of Panchayati Raj which needed a great fillip, Rahul has sensed the need to strengthen the Congress bottom-up. He is following upon that with a missionary zeal.
Rahul, who is known for replying instantly on his BlackBerry, is finally a people's man. This grand Indian election has thrown an electrifying paradox; while the 82-year-old L K Advani is all over global websites and mobile text campaigns, Rahul is conspicuously engaged in direct people-to-people contact. And although being a financial analyst, he candidly castigated Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi for providing sops to Indian industrialists while the poverty-ridden in the state were given a paltry pittance. He avoids unnecessary media interaction, though he is fully aware that it is a necessary date in his appointment schedules of the future.
In a country whose "demographic dividend" indicates youthful adrenaline, there are two key factors that could change the future of coalition politics in India. Firstly, Rahul Gandhi's ascension to the top at the appropriate time, and second, some solid groundwork by the Congress in the cow-belt of UP and Bihar, the two states that inevitably decide the final groupings. The latter is a Herculean task, but will be considerably impacted by the first. I foresee the return of single-party dominance or a more direct two-party (Congress-BJP) confrontation ahead. Coalition politics, I predict, is on its last legs in Elections 2009, despite it appearing a virtual improbability today looking at their dominance in 2009. Actually, it is the proverbial chaos before the impending doom. I foresee people getting increasingly restless with the interminable squabbling. Also, as the electorate matures and its profile alters, fragmentation will wane at the national level as stability with growth will become a perennial mantra. In the next five years, we will witness mergers and consolidation (acquisition, anyone?) amongst various political constituents as new young talent emerges to take charge across different ideologies and formations. Leadership and governance will be the deciding factors for the next Prime Minister. For Rahul it has been baptism by fire in the cauldron of internecine coalition politics, but it will be a great asset for the future.
Rahul assiduously refrained from making political capital on his famous cousin Varun Gandhi's shockingly acerbic outbursts on the Muslim community stating, "hate blinds us all". And that "life is full of surprises". It is indeed ironical that while Varun Gandhi becomes the new Hindutva poster-boy, a fully-converted RSS-type religious hardliner, Rahul religiously follows his great-grandfather Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru's tolerant secular philosophy. A year ago, Priyanka Vadra, Rahul's immensely popular sister had personally visited her father's killers and conspirators in jail, and sought forgiveness for them. They may be first cousins, but Rahul and Priyanka are as different from Varun as chalk and chewing gum. Rahul possesses a healing touch, and his greatest asset is his listening ability. Varun can claim just to the contrary.
In Jagdishpur, which is part of Rahul's Amethi parliamentary constituency, one has to see the Gandhi family's emotional bond with the common man to understand and experience the gargantuan goodwill and love that the people have for them. It is got to be experienced to be believed. Rahul has painstakingly persevered over the last five years to give his people his full attention. Mayawati is understandably nervous.
Rahul's core team consists of quiet, dedicated, focussed back-room boys, who like their boss, work hard, have a long-term vision and consciously keep a low profile.
By May 16, 2009, the Indian election results will be finally out. For some, it will be the end of their political career. For others, another opportunity to redeem themselves. And yet for the remainder, hope. For Rahul Gandhi though, it will be just the beginning of another journey to getting India on the fast-track.
We keep asking who is India's Barack Obama? In all honesty, I believe we do not have a Barack Obama. Because we do not need one. Because India has its own Rahul Gandhi.
